The Alabama State Capitol in Montgomery, Alabama, as seen on Nov. 14, 2025. The Alabama Legislature will return for its 2026 regular session on Jan. 13, and should face questions about funding the state's two public health care programs. (Brian Lyman/Alabama Reflector)
Hope you weren’t expecting a break from Alabama politics, because the silly season is about to begin.
Lawmakers will return to Montgomery two weeks from Tuesday to get an early start on the 2026 session. It’s standard procedure in the fourth year of a quadrennium. Lawmakers can’t raise money while the Legislature is in session. So election-year sessions traditionally focus on passing the state’s two budgets and getting everyone back to campaigning as soon as possible.
If you’re expecting gambling bills or Medicaid expansion this year, you’re going to be disappointed.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.
But plenty of issues await lawmakers on Jan. 13. And afterward, we have the possibility of an interesting fall political campaign. Maybe not a competitive one, but better than what we saw four years ago.
Health care: With health care costs rising throughout the country, legislators must address potential premium increases in the Public Education Employee Health Insurance Program (PEEHIP) and the State Employee Health Insurance Program (SEHIP), which provide health insurance for state employees. PEEHIP has requested a $380 million funding boost from the state to avoid premium increases. The State Employees’ Insurance Board has already raised some costs for employees next year. Lawmakers will have to wrestle with how much they want to give to the state agencies as affordability stays on everyone’s minds.
Employee pay raises: Legislators will also be tempted to approve pay raises, especially for teachers next year. That will have to balance against what’s expected to be a merely-OK year for revenue growth, where health care may demand a large portion of any new money.
CHOOSE Act: Republicans in control of the Legislature are fans of the voucher-like program, and approved $180 million for the program last year — $80 million more than they were legally required to.
There will be pressure on lawmakers to increase that still further. Whether fiscal constraints stop them — or whether they simply ignore them — could be the difference in whether legislators in 2027 have additional headaches in the Education Trust Fund. States that have created similar programs, including Arizona, have seen them blow holes in their budgets.
Alabama Democrats: Before Doug Jones entered the gubernatorial contest last month, the Alabama Democratic Party seemed moribund. While Jones isn’t the first Democrat to join the contest, many of those who were in had no experience or no proven record of winning at any level. It wasn’t a good sign for a party that seemed to pick its nominees not by consensus, but by accident.
Jones at minimum has given the faithful a point to rally around. A proven fundraiser and a popular figure among Democrats, the former U.S. senator has seemed to kickstart the minority party’s enthusiasm for next year’s contests. Rep. Phillip Ensler, D-Montgomery, came into the lieutenant governor’s race with Jones’ encouragement.
We’ll have a better sense of the party’s prospects when candidate qualifying ends on Jan. 23. Jones can’t do it alone. Democrats will need a strong slate of candidates up and down the ballot. They’ll especially need a solid number of House and Senate nominees to keep local enthusiasm up. If they can do that, and if the national climate continues to lean toward the Democrats, the fall campaign might be interesting.
Alabama Republicans: But it may not change much. Republicans are unlikely to lose their grip on state government next year. Alabama remains a solidly red state. And the Alabama GOP is better organized and better funded than its opponents.
There are potential risks for the GOP, and they’re at the top of the ticket. For better or worse, Republicans have largely fallen in line behind U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville as their gubernatorial nominee. Tuberville has spent much of his term making awful statements about Black Alabamians, immigrants and now Muslims. He hasn’t put residency questions to rest. The senator’s campaign has projected an arrogance about its prospects that won’t be an asset for the party. And Tuberville looks eager to make his campaign a giant culture war offensive, which could backfire if the electorate is more focused on affordability.
But the major interest groups in Montgomery are closing ranks behind GOP candidates, and straight-ticket voting could carry Republicans over any mistakes, as it has in the past. Democratic turnout will likely be higher than in either 2022 or 2024, but at this point, the party’s best realistic hope is picking up a few seats in the Alabama Legislature.
One thing I’ve learned is that it’s foolish to make predictions in Alabama politics. There will be surprises ahead in 2026. And very likely some unfinished business awaiting next year’s winners in 2027.
From Alabama Reflector Post Url: Visit
Author: Brian Lyman